The Monday Morning Briefing

The stories UK businesses should be watching this week, and what to do about them.

DATES TO WATCH

• Thursday 5th November: Ofgem's consultation on supplier licence rules closes.
• Friday 20th November: Ofgem's consultations on gas import capacity and a time-of-use price cap close.
• Monday 30th November: BICS applications close, and so does the government's consultation on reforming company reporting.

1. Wholesale gas and power hit new highs for this winter

Between 21st and 27th October, the November gas contract rose about 13% to 237.33p/therm, and November power rose about 15% to £191.59/MWh. Next summer's gas is up about 8% on the week and is now more than a third above its level at the end of September. By 30th October, December gas had reached 257.60p/therm.

The causes were outages at Norwegian gas fields, low wind and strong Asian demand for LNG. NESO, the National Energy System Operator, and National Gas both say supply should stay secure this winter.

What it means for you: Prices have risen for four weeks in a row, and 2027 contracts have gone up too, not just this winter's. If you're renewing in the next 6 to 12 months, decide the price you'd be comfortable locking in at before the renewal, rather than under pressure on the day.

Sources: Catalyst week 44 report | Purely Energy market data | Troocost weekly update

2. Network charges and levies are now the bigger story for 2027 renewals

Fidelity Energy estimates that charges other than the energy itself make up 62% of a typical business electricity unit rate this year, rising to 69% in 2027/28. It expects wholesale prices to fall by almost a fifth next year, but the total rate to keep rising. NESO's forecast points to transmission charges rising about 29% on average from April 2027, and by almost 50% for high-voltage (HV4) connections. Final tariffs are expected in January 2027.

What it means for you: A good wholesale price doesn't guarantee a lower bill. Check which charging band each of your sites is in and whether your contract passes these charges through, before you set your 2027 budget.

Sources: Fidelity Energy Autumn 2026 insights | Optimised on the transmission charges forecast

3. Grid access is now being actively allocated

On 28th October the government published its response on managing demand-side grid connections. It will use powers in the Planning and Infrastructure Act to reallocate and reserve capacity and to process applications faster, with priority for strategic demand including data centres. NESO also had until 31st October to issue its delayed first-batch connection offers, about 62 in total, after a second extension.

What it means for you: If your plans for the next three years include expansion, electrification or on-site generation, check your connection position before committing capital.

Sources: Computer Weekly | Ofgem letter on the extension | Utility Week

4. Sustainability reporting rules and the carbon border tax are eight weeks away

The FCA's final rules require listed companies to report against the UK Sustainability Reporting Standards from accounting periods starting in January 2027, on a comply-or-explain basis. First reports appear in 2028. Separately, the government is consulting until 30th November on modernising corporate reporting under the Companies Act.

The UK carbon border tax (CBAM) also starts on 1st January 2027 for imported aluminium, cement, fertiliser, hydrogen, and iron and steel. Importers must keep records from that date and can use verified emissions data or government default values, which are now published. First returns and payments for 2027 are due by 31st May 2028.

What it means for you: Listed companies will ask their suppliers for emissions data, whether or not the supplier is covered by the rules. If you import steel, aluminium or cement, ask your suppliers now whether they can give you verified emissions figures, because default values may cost more.

Sources: NatWest regulatory roundup | Grant Thornton on the FCA rules | GOV.UK carbon border tax summary | Carbon border tax record-keeping guidance

5. Paying for grid capacity you don't use

Ofgem's preferred position is to reject a proposed change that would have moved sites with large connections but low usage into lower charging bands. Responses to its consultation close on 11th December.

What it means for you: Seasonal operations, cold stores and sites with oversized supplies will keep paying high fixed charges unless they review their capacity. Comparing your agreed supply capacity with your actual peak demand is often the quickest saving available.

Source: Ofgem consultation

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

• Batteries: Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners committed over €270m to the 350 MW/1,400 MWh Kilmarnock South battery in Ayrshire, due to start operating in Q1 2028. (SSG)
• Solar: The Planning Inspectorate overturned a council's refusal of the 25 MW Warren Wood solar park in Norfolk, finding that farming can continue on the site. It's a useful precedent for landowners. (Energy Market Price)
• Water: Ofwat's draft decisions on water company performance penalties and rewards are out, with final decisions due by 15th December. Bills from April 2027 will differ by region. (Ofwat)

KEY DATES AHEAD: 11th December (Ofgem standing charges consultation closes), 15th December (Ofwat final decisions), 1st January 2027 (UK sustainability reporting and the carbon border tax start).

Want to talk through what this means for your sites? Get in touch at hello@admpartners.uk.